SYSTEMATIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE SERVICE SECTOR IN UKRAINE UNDER MARTIAL LAW

Abstract

The article conducts a systematic assessment of the risks of the functioning of the service sector in Ukraine under martial law and develops economic and mathematical approaches for their quantitative modeling. The service sector is a key component of the national economy, ensuring employment of the population, the formation of gross added value and the satisfaction of socially significant needs. Under martial law, the activities of enterprises in this sector take place in conditions of high uncertainty, increased vulnerability and the complex impact of security, economic, social, infrastructure, institutional and digital risks. Traditional additive methods of risk assessment are insufficient for the analysis of such complex interconnected systems, which necessitates the use of a multiplicative approach and simulation modeling. The article proposes a multiplicative model of integral systemic risk, which takes into account the cumulative effect of the simultaneous implementation of several risk groups and allows assessing the nonlinear amplification of negative consequences for the service sector under conditions of high uncertainty. To reflect the stochastic nature of risks and their interdependence, a model based on Monte Carlo simulation modeling was developed, which provides the ability to evaluate probable scenarios of events, identify critical points of the system and predict potential losses in the volume of services provided, taking into account dynamic changes in the external and internal environment, as well as uncertainty in the behavior of economic agents. A functional dependence of the volume of services provided by enterprises on the integral risk was introduced, which allows us to quantitatively assess the impact of risks on the performance of enterprises, as well as identify priority areas for management decisions, anti-crisis measures and strategic planning. The results of the study have practical significance for anti-crisis management, the formation of adaptation strategies, optimization of enterprise resources and state policy to support economic stability, digital transformation and post-war restoration of the service sector in Ukraine.