THEORETICAL BASIS FOR FORMING A MODEL FOR CHOOSING STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT DIRECTIONS FOR CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The article examines the theoretical foundations for developing a model for selecting the directions of strategic development of construction industry enterprises under conditions of macroeconomic instability, war-related risks, disruptions in logistics chains, and rising resource costs. It is emphasized that the current operation of construction enterprises is characterized by significant fluctuations, structural changes in demand, declining investment activity, limited access to financial resources, and workforce-related problems. This necessitates a comprehensive analysis of industry development trends and the application of economic and mathematical tools for forecasting performance outcomes. Scientific approaches to the study of strategic enterprise development are analyzed; however, it is noted that the issue of developing models for selecting strategic directions for construction enterprises in a highly turbulent external environment remains insufficiently explored. The purpose of the study is defined as the development of a theoretical framework for constructing a model for selecting the directions of strategic development of such enterprises. The paper proposes an approach to assessing strategy effectiveness with due regard to the actual and prospective operating conditions of enterprises. For this purpose, expert evaluation is applied to combinations of factors characterizing the current state of the industry and possible future changes. Actual conditions include, in particular, labor shortages, limited innovation, a low level of automation, problems with energy supply, shortages of raw materials, and other factors. Prospective conditions include rapid staff training, the implementation of innovations and LEAN technologies, optimization of energy consumption, the use of state recovery programs, deregulation in construction, and the greening of the industry. Three possible directions of enterprise strategic development are identified: orientation toward external expansion, a combination of external and internal development, and internal improvement. To assess the probability of maximizing financial results and capital growth, expert questionnaires and scales for evaluating factors and outcomes are used. The obtained data are processed using machine learning methods, in particular the Random Forest algorithm implemented in the Matlab environment. The model makes it possible to estimate the probability of achieving the maximum financial result for each strategy separately under actual and prospective conditions, after which the conditional probability of strategy success is calculated. Based on the obtained values, the optimal direction of enterprise strategic development is determined, ensuring the highest probability of growth in financial results and capital in the medium term.