DYNAMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE ALIGNMENT BETWEEN THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY AND THE RISK ENVIRONMENT UNDER A SYSTEMIC CRISIS

Abstract

The article develops a methodological approach to the dynamic assessment of the alignment between the economic security of entrepreneurial activity and the risk environment under a systemic crisis. The approach is based on comparing the actual capacity of a business entity to withstand risks with the level of readiness required by their current structure and intensity. The risk environment is characterized through the identification and grouping of macroeconomic and sectoral risks, normalization of the relevant indicators, and determination of phase-dynamic weights, which makes it possible to account for changes in their significance across different phases of a systemic crisis. The relationship between risks and the components of economic security is established using an impact matrix, which enables differentiated requirements to be determined for the financial, production and technological, human and intellectual, investment and innovation, information and digital, logistics and resource, and organizational and resilience components. Taking into account the risk exposure and the minimum acceptable baseline value, the required level of readiness is determined for each component. Actual readiness is assessed by combining quantitative results of entrepreneurial activity with organizational characteristics of internal processes. Comparison of the required and actual readiness makes it possible to determine the level of alignment and to identify readiness reserves and deficits across individual components of economic security. Based on the alignment levels of individual components, an integral assessment is calculated to characterize the overall alignment of the economic security of entrepreneurial activity with the risk environment. The magnitude and direction of the identified gaps provide the basis for prioritizing managerial intervention and developing differentiated measures to strengthen the economic security of entrepreneurial activity. The dynamic nature of the proposed approach is ensured by updating the assessment parameters in response to changes in the risk environment, which enables timely identification of the most vulnerable components and targeted managerial responses under a systemic crisis. The proposed methodological approach was practically validated using enterprises in Ukraine’s agricultural sector as case studies.