DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT MONITORING IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: REGIONAL AND SECTORAL PERSPECTIVES

Abstract

 The article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the fundamental transformations of Ukraine's agricultural sector during the 2022–2025 period. Amidst full-scale armed aggression, which caused critical infrastructure destruction and the loss of traditional logistical routes, the shift in the paradigm of the agro-industrial complex (AIC) functioning is substantiated. The dynamics of the share of agriculture in the GDP structure, which suffered a significant decline but maintained the role of a strategic economic stabilizer, are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the assessment of direct ($10.3 billion) and indirect ($69.8 billion) losses in the industry, which allowed for identifying the depth of the recession and the potential for further recovery.

The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of an adaptive methodology for monitoring the competitive environment, which, unlike traditional approaches, integrates security risks, availability of critical infrastructure, and the institutional readiness of entities for the implementation of the EU Common Agricultural Policy. The paper details "tectonic shifts" in the regional structure of the AIC, specifically the transformation of the Western and Central regions into logistical hubs and the catastrophic depression of the South following the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP. The economic expediency of transitioning from a grain-based production model to an oilseed-based one as a strategic response to the logistical basis price gap is proved.

A separate section investigates the impact of the second stage of land reform for legal entities that commenced in 2024. It was established that, contrary to fears of monopolization, the market showed restraint but contributed to a 37% increase in land capitalization. The role of digital tools, specifically the State Agrarian Registry (SAR) and marketing communication systems, as key factors for enterprise survival, is explored. Strategic development guidelines until 2030 are formulated based on Green Deal principles, bioenergy conversion, and the harmonization of environmental standards with EU requirements, which is a necessary condition for restoring Ukraine's status as a global guarantor of food security.