ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF CONFECTIONERY INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the development of Ukraine’s confectionery industry enterprises in 2015–2024 under multifactor crisis conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-scale military aggression. The study substantiates the role of the confectionery industry as a system-forming component of the food sector that generates processing value added, ensures employment, and provides foreign exchange earnings through exports.

The purpose of the study is to identify key trends and patterns in the development of confectionery enterprises based on the integration of production indicators (NACE 10.82), foreign trade data (HS 1704, 1806), and selected socio-economic parameters, as well as to determine the main factors of resilience and risks under martial law. The methodological framework is based on a combination of production and commodity approaches, which makes it possible to reconcile domestic production dynamics with the results of foreign economic activity.

The results show that during 2015–2021 the confectionery industry experienced a phase of gradual recovery and growth, accompanied by an expansion of exports, primarily to the European Union and Middle Eastern markets. However, the period 2022–2024 became a catalyst for profound structural changes. A significant decline in physical production volumes was recorded in the first year of the full-scale war due to the occupation of territories, destruction of production facilities, disruptions in logistics chains, and shortages of raw materials. At the same time, from 2023 onward, a trend of gradual recovery has been observed, driven by business relocation, operational adaptation, and the restructuring of export flows.

The analysis confirms a substantial transformation of the geographical structure of exports, with the loss of markets in aggressor countries partially offset by increased access to EU markets, which required accelerated certification and adjustments to product standards. Despite declining profitability and growing dependence on imported cocoa raw materials, confectionery enterprises continue to play an important socio-economic role as employers.

The study concludes that Ukraine’s confectionery industry demonstrates a high level of production and institutional resilience. Further development prospects are associated with reducing energy and labor risks, modernizing technologies, diversifying markets, and focusing on high-margin segments of the European market, which will enhance competitiveness in the post-war period.